On Bayes estimates

Variance of Bayes estimates

of signal parameters in the presence of [2] C E. Shannon, " A mathematical theory of communication, " noise, " IRE Trans. [3]-, " Coding theorems for a discrete source with a fidelity [9] P. Swerling, " Maximum angular accuracy of a pulsed search criterion, " IRE Nat. Abstract-This paper contains an analysis of the performance of Bayes conditional-mean parameter estimators. The main result is t...

Bayes and Pseudo-Bayes Estimates of Conditional Probabilities and Their Reliability

Various ways of estimating probabilities, mainly within the Bayesian framework, are discussed. Their relevance and application to machine learning is given, and their relative performance empirically evaluated. A method of accounting for noisy data is given and also applied. The reliability of estimates is measured by a signiicance measure, which is also empirically tested. We brieey discuss th...

Bayes and Minimax Estimates for Quadratic Loss Functions

Bayes Estimates of Flood Quantiles using the Generalised Gamma Distribution∗

In this paper, a Bayesian approach is proposed to estimate flood quantiles while taking statistical uncertainties into account. Predictive exceedance probabilities of annual maximum discharges are obtained using the threeand fourparameter generalised gamma distribution (without and with location parameter respectively). The parameters of this distribution are assumed to be random quantities rat...

Assessing the Calibration of Naive Bayes' Posterior Estimates

In this paper, we give evidence that the posterior distribution of Naive Bayes goes to zero or one exponentially with document length. While exponential change may be expected as new bits of information are added, adding new words does not always correspond to new information. Essentially as a result of its independence assumption, the estimates grow too quickly. We investigate one parametric f...